“The Japan risk forum®” is a study group for the specialized analysis and discussion on major risks relating to Japan and a policy from impartial standpoint.
It’s parent organization is the “Stress Scenario Study Group” which consists of specialists from finance and the insurance industry, business, and consulting industry, and started its activities from 2010.

Stress and scenario testing and management decision

Amid the economic and financial crisis triggered by the Lehman shock and the Europe debt problem it has become difficult to make a so-called “standard scenario” as scenario planning of management decision has made more difficult.　We are facing a practical difficulty of to what extend we should prepare the negative scenario in the “worst-case scenario”.　These are very important on-going issues.

In Japan, organisations have put efforts into improvement of enterprise risk management (ERM) ,　and “stress scenario” analysis is one of the very important part of such efforts to improve the quality of management decision-making, including planning, reviewing, and using it for making management model or capital policy.　Evaluation of risk scenario and the review of a risk should be led by a manager, CIO, and the CRO with deep understanding, instead of mechanical and undistinguishing manner.

This forum puts focus on “decision-making of a stress scenario and management” which can influence a management model, and provide a place to share the latest discussions by specialists from various sector or industry.

Risk Scoring Vector

Japan Risk Forum (JRF), a voluntary association of risk managers from Japanese businesses and academia, updated its assessment on Japan’s economic future scenarios as of December 2013. JRF (we) first published the framework of its risk assessment tool, “Risk Scoring Vector” in May 2013, followed by the score results for June 2013. The current December release is the first update. In the “Risk Scoring Vector” framework, JRF assesses three stylized economic scenarios for Japan, namely “Abenomics to succeed”, “Stagflation” and “Back to deflation”. JRF then gives scoring on each scenario based on the actual performance of economic variables as well as our assessment on policy directions. For more details on its method, we encourage our readers to see our past publication on the tool “Mapping Japan’s Economic Future”.

Abenomics Sailing Ahead 201312[pdf 123KB]

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